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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ win with a probability of 71.72%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 11.19%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.07%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 0-1 (3.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 71.72% | 17.08% | 11.19% |
| Both teams to score 50.33% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.25% | 38.74% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.94% | 61.06% |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.48% | 9.52% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.08% | 31.92% |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.63% | 44.37% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.57% | 80.42% |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 2-0 @ 11.68% 1-0 @ 9.94% 2-1 @ 9.49% 3-0 @ 9.16% 3-1 @ 7.44% 4-0 @ 5.38% 4-1 @ 4.38% 3-2 @ 3.02% 5-0 @ 2.53% 5-1 @ 2.06% 4-2 @ 1.78% 6-0 @ 0.99% Other @ 3.87% Total : 71.72% | 1-1 @ 8.07% 0-0 @ 4.23% 2-2 @ 3.86% Other @ 0.92% Total : 17.08% | 0-1 @ 3.43% 1-2 @ 3.28% 0-2 @ 1.4% 2-3 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.04% Total : 11.2% |