Eredivisie Gameweek 34
May 17, 2026 1.30pm
Abe Lenstra Stadion

Heerenveen vs Ajax - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Heerenveen

All competitions
Last game
May 11, 2026 1.30pm
NAC Breda 2 - 0 Heerenveen
Goals scored
57
Top scorer
Jacob Trenskow

Ajax

All competitions
Last game
May 10, 2026 3.45pm
Ajax 1 - 2 Utrecht
Goals scored
59
Top scorer
Mika Godts

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Heerenveen win with a probability of 40.62%. A win for Ajax has a probability of 35.22% and a draw has a probability of 24.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (7.17%) and 2-0 (5.47%). The likeliest Ajax win is 1-2 (7.9%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.23%).

Result

Heerenveen 40.62% (-0.04)
Draw 24.18% (+0.02)
Ajax 35.22% (+0.07)

Both Teams to Score: 

61.71% (+0.01)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.52% (-0.05)
Under 1.5 18.48% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 60.91% (-0.05)
Under 2.5 39.09% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 39.55% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 60.45% (+0.03)
Over 4.5 24.42% (-0.02)
Under 4.5 75.58% (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Heerenveen 37.62% (-0.10)
Draw 36.37%
Ajax 26.01% (+0.09)

Team To Score First

Heerenveen 51.31% (+0.18)
No Goal 4.83% (+0.03)
Ajax 43.86% (-0.19)

Corners

Over 8 63.88%
Equal 8 11.33%
Under 8 24.79%
Over 9 51.69% (-0.02)
Equal 9 12.18% (-0.01)
Under 9 36.12%
Over 10.5 39.79%
Under 10.5 60.21%

Heerenveen Goals

Over 1.5 45.97% (-0.08)
Under 1.5 54.03% (+0.08)
Over 2.5 22.2% (-0.08)
Under 2.5 77.8% (+0.07)
Over 3.5 9.25% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 90.75% (+0.04)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5 70.91% (+0.04)
Under 0.5 29.09% (-0.04)
Over 1.5 41.25% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 58.75% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 18.49%
Under 2.5 81.51%
Over 3.5 6.74% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 93.26% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Heerenveen 40.61%
Draw 24.18%
Ajax 35.23%
Heerenveen
2-1 @ 8.35% (-0.01)
1-0 @ 7.17% (+0.02)
2-0 @ 5.47%
3-1 @ 4.58% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 3.4%
3-0 @ 2.87% (-0.03)
Other @ 8.77% (-0.04)
Total : 40.61%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.23% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 6.54%
0-0 @ 4.83% (+0.03)
3-3 @ 2.1% (-0.01)
Other @ 0.48%
Total : 24.18%
Ajax
1-2 @ 7.9%
0-1 @ 6.5% (+0.05)
0-2 @ 4.92% (+0.01)
1-3 @ 4.01%
2-3 @ 3.41%
0-3 @ 2.23% (-0.02)
Other @ 6.26% (+0.02)
Total : 35.23%

Head to Head

Eredivisie Eredivisie Europa Playoffs
Nov 1, 2025 3.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Eredivisie Gameweek 19
Jan 19, 2025 1.30pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Abe Lenstra Stadion
  • Alireza Jahanbakhsh 87' yellowcard
  • goal Josip Sutalo 20'
  • yellowcard Kian Fitz-Jim 44'
  • goal Chuba Akpom 82'
Eredivisie Gameweek 1
Aug 11, 2024 3.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Johan Cruijff Arena
  • Kristian Hlynsson 45' goal
  • yellowcard Pawel Bochniewicz 16'
  • yellowcard Oliver Braude 84'
Eredivisie Gameweek 21
Feb 11, 2024 1.30pm
3
2
HT : 2 0
FT Abe Lenstra Stadion
  • Pelle van Amersfoort 11' goal
  • Osame Sahraoui 38' goal
  • Pelle van Amersfoort 46' goal
  • Sven van Beek 49' yellowcard
  • Mats Kohlert 51' yellowcard
  • Oliver Braude 65' yellowcard
  • Pawel Bochniewicz 72' yellowcard
  • goal Pawel Bochniewicz 51' (OG)
  • goal Chuba Akpom 79'
Eredivisie Gameweek 11
Nov 5, 2023 3.45pm
4
1
HT : 2 1
FT Johan Cruijff Arena
  • Steven Bergwijn 25' goal
  • Brian Brobbey 42' goal
  • Branco van den Boomen 60' yellowcard
  • Chuba Akpom 84' goal
  • Chuba Akpom 90'+2' goal
  • yellowcard Pelle van Amersfoort 40'
  • goal Luuk Brouwers 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Simon Olsson 81'
Eredivisie Gameweek 25
Mar 12, 2023 1.30pm
2
4
HT : 1 3
FT
  • Pelle van Amersfoort 42' goal
  • Sydney van Hooijdonk 79' goal
  • goal Mohammed Kudus 10'
  • goal Edson Alvarez 16'
  • goal Steven Bergwijn 19'
  • goal Kenneth Taylor 52'