Eredivisie Gameweek 34
Heerenveen
May 17, 2026 1.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Abe Lenstra Stadion
Ajax
  • Hristiyan Petrov 75' yellowcard
  • 84' yellowcard
  • Eser Gürbüz 84' yellowcard
  • Lasse Nordås 84' yellowcard
  • Luuk Brouwers 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Rayane Bounida 69'
  • yellowcard Youri Regeer 69'
  • yellowcard Kasper Dolberg 79'
  • yellowcard 85'
  • yellowcard Maher Carrizo 85'

Heerenveen vs Ajax - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Heerenveen

All competitions
Last game
May 11, 2026 1.30pm
NAC Breda 2 - 0 Heerenveen
Goals scored
59
Top scorer
Jacob Trenskow

Ajax

All competitions
Last game
May 10, 2026 3.45pm
Ajax 1 - 2 Utrecht
Goals scored
61
Top scorer
Mika Godts

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 35.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.03%) and 2-0 (5.41%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (7.76%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.

Result

Heerenveen 40.59% ▼ (-0.03)
Draw 24.26% ▲ (+0.09)
Ajax 35.12% ▼ (-0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

62.41% ▲ (+0.71)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.72% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 1.5 18.28% ▼ (-0.15)
Over 2.5 61.27% ▲ (+0.34)
Under 2.5 38.73% ▼ (-0.34)
Over 3.5 40.17% ▲ (+0.60)
Under 3.5 59.83% ▼ (-0.60)
Over 4.5 24.87% ▲ (+0.45)
Under 4.5 75.13% ▼ (-0.44)

First Half Winner

Heerenveen 36.99% ▼ (-0.63)
Draw 36.73% ▲ (+0.36)
Ajax 26.29% ▲ (+0.28)

Team To Score First

Heerenveen 52.54% ▲ (+1.22)
No Goal 4.75% ▼ (-0.08)
Ajax 42.71% ▼ (-1.15)

Corners

Over 8 65.25% ▲ (+1.37)
Equal 8 10.77% ▼ (-0.57)
Under 8 23.98% ▼ (-0.81)
Over 9 53.58% ▲ (+1.90)
Equal 9 11.68% ▼ (-0.50)
Under 9 34.75% ▼ (-1.37)
Over 10.5 42.02% ▲ (+2.24)
Under 10.5 57.98% ▼ (-2.24)

Heerenveen Goals

Over 1.5 46.38% ▲ (+0.41)
Under 1.5 53.62% ▼ (-0.41)
Over 2.5 22.53% ▲ (+0.33)
Under 2.5 77.47% ▼ (-0.33)
Over 3.5 9.55% ▲ (+0.31)
Under 3.5 90.45% ▼ (-0.30)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5 70.99% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 0.5 29.01% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 1.5 41.45% ▲ (+0.17)
Under 1.5 58.55% ▼ (-0.17)
Over 2.5 18.77% ▲ (+0.26)
Under 2.5 81.23% ▼ (-0.26)
Over 3.5 6.67% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 3.5 93.33% ▲ (+0.08)

Score analysis

Heerenveen 40.6%
Draw 24.26%
Ajax 35.13%
Heerenveen
2-1 @ 8.38% ▲ (+0.04)
1-0 @ 7.03% ▼ (-0.13)
2-0 @ 5.41% ▼ (-0.06)
3-1 @ 4.51% ▼ (-0.09)
3-2 @ 3.46% ▲ (+0.07)
3-0 @ 2.77% ▼ (-0.11)
Other @ 9.04% ▲ (+0.27)
Total : 40.6%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.16% ▼ (-0.09)
2-2 @ 6.6% ▲ (+0.06)
0-0 @ 4.75% ▼ (-0.08)
3-3 @ 2.24% ▲ (+0.15)
Other @ 0.51% ▲ (+0.04)
Total : 24.26%
Ajax
1-2 @ 7.76% ▼ (-0.16)
0-1 @ 6.49% ▲ (+0.03)
0-2 @ 4.86% ▼ (-0.07)
1-3 @ 4.2% ▲ (+0.19)
2-3 @ 3.46% ▲ (+0.05)
0-3 @ 2.2% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 6.16% ▼ (-0.11)
Total : 35.13%

Head to Head

Eredivisie Eredivisie Europa Playoffs
Ajax
Nov 1, 2025 3.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Heerenveen
Eredivisie Gameweek 19
Heerenveen
Jan 19, 2025 1.30pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Abe Lenstra Stadion
Ajax
  • Alireza Jahanbakhsh 87' yellowcard
  • goal Josip Sutalo 20'
  • yellowcard Kian Fitz-Jim 44'
  • goal Chuba Akpom 82'
Eredivisie Gameweek 1
Ajax
Aug 11, 2024 3.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Johan Cruijff Arena
Heerenveen
  • Kristian Hlynsson 45' goal
  • yellowcard Pawel Bochniewicz 16'
  • yellowcard Oliver Braude 84'
Eredivisie Gameweek 21
Heerenveen
Feb 11, 2024 1.30pm
3
2
HT : 2 0
FT Abe Lenstra Stadion
Ajax
  • Pelle van Amersfoort 11' goal
  • Osame Sahraoui 38' goal
  • Pelle van Amersfoort 46' goal
  • Sven van Beek 49' yellowcard
  • Mats Kohlert 51' yellowcard
  • Oliver Braude 65' yellowcard
  • Pawel Bochniewicz 72' yellowcard
  • goal Pawel Bochniewicz 51' (OG)
  • goal Chuba Akpom 79'
Eredivisie Gameweek 11
Ajax
Nov 5, 2023 3.45pm
4
1
HT : 2 1
FT Johan Cruijff Arena
Heerenveen
  • Steven Bergwijn 25' goal
  • Brian Brobbey 42' goal
  • Branco van den Boomen 60' yellowcard
  • Chuba Akpom 84' goal
  • Chuba Akpom 90'+2' goal
  • yellowcard Pelle van Amersfoort 40'
  • goal Luuk Brouwers 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Simon Olsson 81'
Eredivisie Gameweek 25
Heerenveen
Mar 12, 2023 1.30pm
2
4
HT : 1 3
FT
Ajax
  • Pelle van Amersfoort 42' goal
  • Sydney van Hooijdonk 79' goal
  • goal Mohammed Kudus 10'
  • goal Edson Alvarez 16'
  • goal Steven Bergwijn 19'
  • goal Kenneth Taylor 52'

Form Data

NAC Breda 2 - 0 Heerenveen
Volendam 0 - 2 Heerenveen
Heerenveen 2 - 1 Sittard
AZ 3 - 0 Heerenveen
Heerenveen 4 - 1 Heracles
Nijmegen 2 - 2 Heerenveen
Ajax 1 - 2 Utrecht
Ajax 2 - 2 PSV
NAC Breda 0 - 2 Ajax
Heracles 0 - 3 Ajax
Ajax 1 - 2 FC Twente
Feyenoord 1 - 1 Ajax