Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 42.49%. A win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 33.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.49%) and 2-0 (6.13%). The likeliest FC Utrecht win was 1-2 (8.13%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.