Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 48.6%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 30.45% and a draw had a probability of 20.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.98%) and 0-2 (5.89%). The likeliest Ajax win was 2-1 (6.63%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.