Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 50.61%. A draw had a probability of 25.13% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 24.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%) , while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 0-1 (6.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.