Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 48.03%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 30.3% and a draw had a probability of 21.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.49%) and 2-0 (5.94%). The likeliest Groningen win was 1-2 (7.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.