Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 45.41%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 31.8% and a draw had a probability of 22.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.97%) and 0-2 (6%). The likeliest Heracles win was 2-1 (7.25%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.