Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 54.44%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 24.58% and a draw had a probability of 20.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.02%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (6.78%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.