Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 54.94%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 24.96% and a draw had a probability of 20.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.98%) and 2-0 (5.73%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (6.15%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.78%).