Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 42.85%. A win for Emmen had a probability of 34.4% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.58%) and 2-0 (5.57%). The likeliest Emmen win was 1-2 (8.18%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.