Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 41.37%. A win for Dordrecht had a probability of 34.7% and a draw had a probability of 23.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.35%) and 2-0 (6.17%). The likeliest Dordrecht win was 1-2 (8.43%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.