Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 39.08%. A win for Dordrecht had a probability of 37.18% and a draw had a probability of 23.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.96%) and 2-0 (5.52%). The likeliest Dordrecht win was 1-2 (8.26%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.