Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 42.87%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 34.53% and a draw had a probability of 22.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.42%) and 2-0 (5.37%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (8.05%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.