Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 43.46%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.18%) and 3-1 (5.42%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (7.61%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.