Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 46.05%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.4%) and 2-0 (6.22%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (7.39%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.