Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 47.92%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 29.23% and a draw had a probability of 22.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.86%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 (6.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.