Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 47.12%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 29.35% and a draw had a probability of 23.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.09%) and 0-2 (7.04%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 2-1 (6.65%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.