Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 44.59%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 30.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.31%) and 0-2 (5.51%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 2-1 (7.42%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.