Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MVV Maastricht win with a probability of 45.69%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 31.51% and a draw had a probability of 22.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.85%) and 2-0 (6.18%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 1-2 (7.37%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.