Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 48%. A win for Jong FC Utrecht had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 22.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.93%) and 0-2 (6.47%). The likeliest Jong FC Utrecht win was 2-1 (7.05%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.