Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 48.15%. A win for Jong FC Utrecht had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.15%) and 0-2 (6%). The likeliest Jong FC Utrecht win was 2-1 (6.98%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.