Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 51.58%. A win for Roda JC had a probability of 27.31% and a draw had a probability of 21.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.33%) and 2-0 (6.14%). The likeliest Roda JC win was 1-2 (6.46%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.