Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RKC Waalwijk win with a probability of 46.57%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 31.25% and a draw had a probability of 22.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a RKC Waalwijk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.91%) and 1-0 (5.83%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (7.41%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.