Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 59.05%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 21.17% and a draw had a probability of 19.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.62%) and 1-0 (7.12%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 1-2 (5.47%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.