Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 41.01%. A win for Roda JC had a probability of 35.4% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.18%) and 0-2 (5.59%). The likeliest Roda JC win was 2-1 (8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.