Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 49.84%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 28.05% and a draw had a probability of 22.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.57%) and 3-1 (6.2%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 1-2 (6.47%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.