Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 38.72%. A win for Almere City had a probability of 38.14% and a draw had a probability of 23.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.38%) and 2-0 (5.07%). The likeliest Almere City win was 1-2 (8.16%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.