Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 41.91%. A win for Almere City had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.36%) and 2-0 (5.28%). The likeliest Almere City win was 1-2 (8.2%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.