Copa Sudamericana
Jul 29, 2026 11.00pm
Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama vs Independiente Medellin - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Vasco da Gama

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last game
Jul 22, 2026 11.00pm
Medellin 2 - 2 Vasco

Independiente Medellin

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last game
Jul 22, 2026 11.00pm
Medellin 2 - 2 Vasco

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 47.96%. A win for Independiente Medellin has a probability of 27.31% and a draw has a probability of 24.71%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Independiente Medellin win is 0-1 (7.06%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.67%).

Result

Vasco da Gama 47.96% (-0.84)
Draw 24.71% (+0.32)
Independiente Medellin 27.31% (+0.45)

Both Teams to Score: 

55.88% (-0.86)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.51% (-0.82)
Under 1.5 23.49% (+0.82)
Over 2.5 53.2% (-1.25)
Under 2.5 46.8% (+1.25)
Over 3.5 30.78% (-1.38)
Under 3.5 69.22% (+1.38)
Over 4.5 17.84% (-1.15)
Under 4.5 82.16% (+1.15)

First Half Winner

Vasco da Gama 35.54% (-0.64)
Draw 43.72% (+0.29)
Independiente Medellin 20.74% (+0.34)

Team To Score First

Vasco da Gama 54.4% (-1.83)
No Goal 6.38% (+0.13)
Independiente Medellin 39.22% (+1.69)

Corners

Over 8 63.13% (+1.18)
Equal 8 10.68% (-0.07)
Under 8 26.19% (-1.11)
Over 9 51.78% (+1.13)
Equal 9 11.35% (+0.05)
Under 9 36.87% (-1.18)
Over 10.5 40.7% (+0.98)
Under 10.5 59.3% (-0.98)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 1.5 46.81% (-1.35)
Under 1.5 53.19% (+1.35)
Over 2.5 22% (-1.18)
Under 2.5 78% (+1.18)
Over 3.5 8.06% (-0.75)
Under 3.5 91.94% (+0.74)

Independiente Medellin Goals

Over 0.5 63.46% (+0.25)
Under 0.5 36.54% (-0.25)
Over 1.5 30.13% (-0.11)
Under 1.5 69.87% (+0.11)
Over 2.5 10.86% (-0.21)
Under 2.5 89.14% (+0.21)
Over 3.5 3.22% (-0.15)
Under 3.5 96.78% (+0.16)

Score analysis

Vasco da Gama 47.95%
Draw 24.7%
Independiente Medellin 27.31%
Vasco da Gama
1-0 @ 10.01% (+0.35)
2-1 @ 9.53% (-0.05)
2-0 @ 7.76% (-0.07)
3-1 @ 5.07% (-0.17)
3-0 @ 4.41% (-0.02)
3-2 @ 3.23% (-0.17)
Other @ 7.94% (-0.73)
Total : 47.95%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.67% (+0.32)
0-0 @ 6.38% (+0.13)
2-2 @ 5.3% (-0.05)
3-3 @ 1.23% (-0.08)
Other @ 0.12% (-0.02)
Total : 24.7%
Independiente Medellin
0-1 @ 7.06% (+0.26)
1-2 @ 6.85% (+0.13)
0-2 @ 3.89% (+0.19)
1-3 @ 2.57%
2-3 @ 2.22% (-0.03)
0-3 @ 1.62% (+0.06)
Other @ 3.1% (-0.15)
Total : 27.31%

Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
Jul 22, 2026 11.00pm
2
2
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Atanasio Girardot
  • Halam Loboa 37' yellowcard
  • John Edwin Montaño 45'+4' goal
  • John Edwin Montaño 72' goal
  • goal Joaquín Varela 46' (OG)
  • yellowcard Cauan Barros 58'
  • goal Claudio Spinelli 86'