Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 49.3%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Deportivo Recoleta had a probability of 24.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%) , while for a Deportivo Recoleta win it was 0-1 (8.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.