Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 49.24%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 25.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for an Atletico Nacional win it was 0-1 (7.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nacional in this match.