Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 61.01%. A draw had a probability of 23.56% and a win for Deportivo La Guaira had a probability of 15.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.28%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%) , while for a Deportivo La Guaira win it was 0-1 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.