Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolivar win with a probability of 61.75%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 17.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolivar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.48%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.96%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (4.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolivar would win this match.

Result
Bolivar	Draw	Athletico Paranaense
61.75% ( 0.15)	21.04% ( -0.07)	17.2% ( -0.09)

Both teams to score 52.96% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.47% (

0.13)

43.53% (

-0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.08% (

0.13)

65.92% (

-0.13)

Bolivar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.43% (

0.09)

13.56% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.34% (

0.17)

40.66% (

-0.17)

Athletico Paranaense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.28% (

-0.03)

38.72% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.54% (

-0.02)

75.46% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Bolivar 61.75%

Athletico Paranaense 17.2%

Draw 21.05%

Bolivar	Draw	Athletico Paranaense
1-0 @ 10.49% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 10.48% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.94% 3-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 3.49% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.31% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.14% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.57% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.39% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.01% Total : 61.75%	1-1 @ 9.96% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.05%	0-1 @ 4.98% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 4.72% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.49% ( -0) Other @ 2.15% Total : 17.2%