Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 66.79%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 13.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.24%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.