Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 39.66%. A win for Vitoria had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 29.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.99%). The likeliest Vitoria win was 1-0 (10.6%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (14.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.