Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 40.07%. A win for Qingdao Youth Island had a probability of 31.94% and a draw had a probability of 27.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.98%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Qingdao Youth Island win was 1-0 (10.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.