Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 47.36%. A win for Dalian Zhixing had a probability of 28.99% and a draw had a probability of 23.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.78%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Dalian Zhixing win was 1-2 (7.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.