Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shenyang Urban win with a probability of 50.39%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 26.28% and a draw had a probability of 23.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shenyang Urban win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.87%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 (6.59%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.