Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Yunnan Yukun win with a probability of 40.54%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 35.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Yunnan Yukun win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.12%) and 2-0 (5.88%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 (8.07%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.