Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 40.13%. A win for Sichuan Jiuniu had a probability of 36.82% and a draw had a probability of 22.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.45%) and 0-2 (5.74%). The likeliest Sichuan Jiuniu win was 2-1 (7.8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.