Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 46.67%. A win for Chengdu Rongcheng had a probability of 28.31% and a draw had a probability of 25.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Chengdu Rongcheng win was 0-1 (6.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.