AFC Champions League
Feb 17, 2026 10.00am
3
2
HT : 2 1
FT Machida Athletic Stadium
  • Tete Yengi 7' goal
  • Ryohei Shirasaki 25' goal
  • Tete Yengi 55' goal
  • Yuta Nakayama 62' yellowcard
  • Shota Fujio 72' yellowcard
  • Takuma Nishimura 72' yellowcard
  • Yuki Soma 86' yellowcard
  • Hiroyuki Mae 87' yellowcard
  • Hokuto Shimoda 87' yellowcard
  • goal Wei Shihao 32'
  • yellowcard Chao Gan 60'
  • yellowcard Gan Chao 60'
  • yellowcard Rongxiang Liao 81'
  • yellowcard Mutellip Iminqari 81'
  • yellowcard Liao Rongxiang 81'
  • yellowcard Mutallep Iminqari 81'
  • goal Felipe Silva 90'
  • goal Felipe 90'

Machida Zelvia vs Chengdu Rongcheng - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Machida Zelvia

All competitions
AFC Champions League
Last game
Feb 10, 2026 12.15pm
Sh. Shenhua 0 - 2 Machida Zelvia

Chengdu Rongcheng

All competitions
AFC Champions League
Last game
Feb 10, 2026 12.15pm
Chengdu 0 - 1 Buriram Utd

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Machida Zelvia win with a probability of 44.54%. A win for Chengdu Rongcheng had a probability of 29.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Machida Zelvia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Chengdu Rongcheng win was 0-1 (8.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.

Result

Machida Zelvia 44.54% (-0.97)
Draw 25.81% (+0.99)
Chengdu Rongcheng 29.65% (-0.07)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.39% (+0.29)

Goals

Over 1.5 72.72% (+0.21)
Under 1.5 27.28% (-0.21)
Over 2.5 48.59% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 51.41% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 27.24% (+0.14)
Under 3.5 72.76% (-0.15)
Over 4.5 15.66% (+0.10)
Under 4.5 84.34% (-0.10)

First Half Winner

Machida Zelvia 34.39% (-1.51)
Draw 40.22% (-0.17)
Chengdu Rongcheng 25.39% (+1.68)

Team To Score First

Machida Zelvia 53.68% (-0.76)
No Goal 7.97% (+0.17)
Chengdu Rongcheng 38.35% (+0.61)

Corners

Over 8 50.02% (+0.93)
Equal 8 11.74% (-0.05)
Under 8 38.23% (-0.90)
Over 9 38.76% (+0.90)
Equal 9 11.26% (+0.03)
Under 9 49.98% (-0.93)
Over 10.5 28.81% (+0.79)
Under 10.5 71.19% (-0.80)

Machida Zelvia Goals

Over 1.5 41.57% (-0.25)
Under 1.5 58.43% (+0.25)
Over 2.5 18.45% (-0.06)
Under 2.5 81.55% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 7.05% (+0.14)
Under 3.5 92.95% (-0.15)

Chengdu Rongcheng Goals

Over 0.5 62.68% (+0.41)
Under 0.5 37.32% (-0.41)
Over 1.5 29.56% (+0.38)
Under 1.5 70.44% (-0.38)
Over 2.5 10.94% (+0.25)
Under 2.5 89.06% (-0.25)
Over 3.5 3.5% (+0.21)
Under 3.5 96.5% (-0.21)

Score analysis

Machida Zelvia 44.53%
Draw 25.82%
Chengdu Rongcheng 29.65%
Machida Zelvia
1-0 @ 10.93% (-0.33)
2-1 @ 8.68% (-0.11)
2-0 @ 7.58% (-0.17)
3-1 @ 4.19% (-0.05)
3-0 @ 3.94% (-0.15)
3-2 @ 2.31% (-0.19)
Other @ 6.9%
Total : 44.53%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.87% (+0.30)
0-0 @ 7.97% (+0.17)
2-2 @ 4.87% (+0.20)
Other @ 0.15% (+0.14)
Total : 25.82%
Chengdu Rongcheng
0-1 @ 8.38% (-0.11)
1-2 @ 6.77% (+0.06)
0-2 @ 4.67% (+0.08)
1-3 @ 2.52% (-0.11)
2-3 @ 1.99% (-0.12)
0-3 @ 1.97% (+0.08)
Other @ 3.35% (+0.08)
Total : 29.65%