Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Machida Zelvia win with a probability of 44.54%. A win for Chengdu Rongcheng had a probability of 29.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Machida Zelvia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Chengdu Rongcheng win was 0-1 (8.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.