Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 52.61%. A win for Shanghai Port had a probability of 25.55% and a draw had a probability of 21.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.35%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Shanghai Port win was 1-2 (6.54%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.