Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qingdao Hainiu win with a probability of 37.59%. A win for Shanghai Port had a probability of 37.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qingdao Hainiu win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (5.61%). The likeliest Shanghai Port win was 0-1 (8.57%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.