Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 63.18%. A draw had a probability of 20.15% and a win for Qingdao Hainiu had a probability of 16.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.36%) and 2-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%) , while for a Qingdao Hainiu win it was 1-2 (4.56%).