Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wuhan Three Towns win with a probability of 47.91%. A win for Qingdao Hainiu had a probability of 27.1% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wuhan Three Towns win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.73%) and 2-0 (8.33%). The likeliest Qingdao Hainiu win was 0-1 (7.3%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.