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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 39.22%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 32.56% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.06%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 0-1 (10.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Stoke City | Draw | Luton Town |
| 39.22% ( | 28.22% | 32.56% |
| Both teams to score 46.74% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.63% ( | 59.37% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.25% | 79.75% ( |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.54% ( | 29.46% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.53% ( | 65.47% |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.27% | 33.73% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.61% | 70.39% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Stoke City | Draw | Luton Town |
| 1-0 @ 12.14% 2-1 @ 8.06% ( 2-0 @ 7.42% 3-1 @ 3.29% 3-0 @ 3.02% 3-2 @ 1.79% 4-1 @ 1% 4-0 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.57% Total : 39.22% | 1-1 @ 13.19% 0-0 @ 9.94% 2-2 @ 4.38% Other @ 0.7% Total : 28.21% | 0-1 @ 10.8% 1-2 @ 7.17% 0-2 @ 5.87% 1-3 @ 2.6% 0-3 @ 2.13% 2-3 @ 1.59% Other @ 2.41% Total : 32.56% |