Championship Gameweek 11
Oct 17, 2026 3.00pm
St. Mary's Stadium

Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions
Last game
Oct 14, 2026 7.45pm
Norwich 0 - 1 Southampton
Goals scored
21
Top scorer
Cyle Larin

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions
Last game
Oct 13, 2026 7.45pm
Wolves 1 - 3 Bolton
Goals scored
15
Top scorer
Sam Dalby

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Southampton win with a probability of 54.98%. A draw has a probability of 23.9% and a win for Bolton Wanderers has a probability of 21.12%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.48%) , while for a Bolton Wanderers win it is 1-2 (5.6%).

Result

Southampton 54.98% ▼ (-1.33)
Draw 23.9% ▲ (+0.52)
Bolton Wanderers 21.12% ▲ (+0.77)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.61% ▲ (+2.15)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.79% ▲ (+1.55)
Under 1.5 21.21% ▼ (-1.54)
Over 2.5 57.05% ▲ (+2.03)
Under 2.5 42.95% ▼ (-2.00)
Over 3.5 35.39% ▲ (+2.33)
Under 3.5 64.61% ▼ (-2.33)
Over 4.5 21.48% ▲ (+1.18)
Under 4.5 78.52% ▼ (-1.19)

First Half Winner

Southampton 39.85% ▼ (-1.65)
Draw 38.97% ▼ (-0.38)
Bolton Wanderers 21.18% ▲ (+2.01)

Team To Score First

Southampton 58% ▼ (-0.79)
No Goal 5.8% ▼ (-0.65)
Bolton Wanderers 36.2% ▲ (+1.43)

Corners

Over 8 65.61% ▲ (+0.05)
Equal 8 9.99% ▼ (-0.57)
Under 8 24.4% ▲ (+0.52)
Over 9 54.79% ▲ (+0.68)
Equal 9 10.82% ▼ (-0.63)
Under 9 34.39% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 10.5 44% ▲ (+1.26)
Under 10.5 56% ▼ (-1.26)

Southampton Goals

Over 1.5 54.73% ▲ (+1.03)
Under 1.5 45.27% ▼ (-1.03)
Over 2.5 28.18% ▲ (+0.49)
Under 2.5 71.82% ▼ (-0.49)
Over 3.5 11.97% ▲ (+0.37)
Under 3.5 88.03% ▼ (-0.36)

Bolton Wanderers Goals

Over 0.5 58.6% ▲ (+2.11)
Under 0.5 41.4% ▼ (-2.11)
Over 1.5 26.88% ▲ (+2.03)
Under 1.5 73.12% ▼ (-2.04)
Over 2.5 9.24% ▲ (+1.02)
Under 2.5 90.76% ▼ (-1.02)
Over 3.5 2.72% ▲ (+0.31)
Under 3.5 97.28% ▼ (-0.30)

Score analysis

Southampton 54.99%
Draw 23.9%
Bolton Wanderers 21.11%
Southampton
1-0 @ 10.08% ▼ (-0.83)
2-1 @ 9.95% ▲ (+0.09)
2-0 @ 8.55% ▼ (-0.59)
3-1 @ 5.96% ▲ (+0.10)
3-0 @ 5.33% ▼ (-0.30)
3-2 @ 3.48%
Other @ 11.64% ▲ (+0.24)
Total : 54.99%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.48% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 5.85% ▲ (+0.73)
0-0 @ 5.8% ▼ (-0.65)
3-3 @ 1.44% ▲ (+0.32)
Other @ 0.33% ▲ (+0.13)
Total : 23.9%
Bolton Wanderers
1-2 @ 5.6% ▲ (+0.16)
0-1 @ 5.33% ▼ (-0.10)
0-2 @ 2.71% ▲ (+0.13)
2-3 @ 2.2% ▲ (+0.34)
1-3 @ 2.1% ▲ (+0.33)
Other @ 2.39% ▲ (+0.17)
Total : 21.11%

Head to Head

Premier League
Apr 19, 2005 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Stelios Giannakopoulos 25' goal
  • Tal Ben Haim 61' yellowcard
  • Stelios Giannakopoulos 73' yellowcard
  • goal Kevin Phillips 69'
Premier League
Aug 25, 2004 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 2
FT
  • Rory Delap 30' yellowcard
  • Peter Crouch 85' goal
  • goal Henrik Pedersen 7'
  • goal Jay Jay Okocha 27'
  • yellowcard Ivan Campo 52'
Premier League
Apr 24, 2004 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Marian Pahars 21' goal
  • Kevin Phillips 23' yellowcard
  • Paul Telfer 43' yellowcard
  • Yoann Folly 60' yellowcard
  • Anders Svensson 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kevin Nolan 26'
  • yellowcard Ivan Campo 39'
  • yellowcard Emerson Thome 62'
  • goal Kevin Nolan 77'
  • goal Kevin Davies 78'
Premier League
Nov 8, 2003 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Ivan Campo 27' yellowcard
  • Mario Jardel 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jason Dodd 8'
  • yellowcard Michael Svensson 62'
  • redcard Michael Svensson 86'
Premier League
May 3, 2003 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Fabrice Fernandes 50' yellowcard
  • Paul Williams 66' yellowcard
  • Brett Ormerod 81' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Youri Djorkaeff 68'
  • yellowcard Ivan Campo 86'
Premier League
Sep 28, 2002 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Anthony Barness 34' yellowcard
  • Youri Djorkaeff 90' goal
  • goal Wayne Bridge 82'