Champions League Gameweek 7
Jan 21, 2026 8.00pm
Stade Vélodrome

Marseille vs Liverpool - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Dec 9, 2025 8.00pm
Union SG 2 - 3 Marseille

Liverpool

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Dec 9, 2025 8.00pm
Inter Milan 0 - 1 Liverpool

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Marseille win with a probability of 43.47%. A win for Liverpool has a probability of 33.87% and a draw has a probability of 22.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.2%). The likeliest Liverpool win is 1-2 (7.63%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.64%).

Result

Marseille 43.47% (+0.02)
Draw 22.69% (-0.05)
Liverpool 33.87% (+0.09)

Both Teams to Score: 

57.36% (+0.32)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.62% (+0.25)
Under 1.5 20.38% (-0.25)
Over 2.5 57.57% (+0.33)
Under 2.5 42.43% (-0.33)
Over 3.5 34.48% (+0.27)
Under 3.5 65.52% (-0.28)
Over 4.5 20.79% (+0.22)
Under 4.5 79.21% (-0.22)

First Half Winner

Marseille 36.39% (-0.09)
Draw 38.4% (+0.01)
Liverpool 25.2% (+0.08)

Team To Score First

Marseille 52.19% (-0.14)
No Goal 5.25% (-0.09)
Liverpool 42.56% (+0.22)

Corners

Over 8 48.47% (+0.09)
Equal 8 11.78% (+0.03)
Under 8 39.75% (-0.11)
Over 9 37.31% (+0.07)
Equal 9 11.16% (+0.03)
Under 9 51.53% (-0.09)
Over 10.5 27.56% (+0.03)
Under 10.5 72.44% (-0.04)

Marseille Goals

Over 1.5 44.73% (+0.17)
Under 1.5 55.27% (-0.17)
Over 2.5 21.36% (+0.11)
Under 2.5 78.64% (-0.11)
Over 3.5 8.38% (+0.06)
Under 3.5 91.62% (-0.05)

Liverpool Goals

Over 0.5 68.44% (+0.15)
Under 0.5 31.56% (-0.16)
Over 1.5 36.91% (+0.25)
Under 1.5 63.09% (-0.25)
Over 2.5 15.54% (+0.19)
Under 2.5 84.46% (-0.20)
Over 3.5 5.3% (+0.09)
Under 3.5 94.7% (-0.10)

Score analysis

Marseille 43.47%
Draw 22.68%
Liverpool 33.86%
Marseille
2-1 @ 9.2% (+0.01)
1-0 @ 8.19% (-0.06)
2-0 @ 6.2% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 4.74% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 3.67%
3-2 @ 3.21% (+0.03)
Other @ 8.26% (+0.04)
Total : 43.47%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.64% (-0.05)
2-2 @ 5.31% (+0.03)
0-0 @ 5.25% (-0.09)
3-3 @ 1.36% (+0.04)
Other @ 0.12% (+0.01)
Total : 22.68%
Liverpool
1-2 @ 7.63% (+0.02)
0-1 @ 6.95% (-0.07)
0-2 @ 5.22% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 3.64% (+0.04)
2-3 @ 2.66% (+0.04)
0-3 @ 2.58% (+0.02)
Other @ 5.18% (+0.09)
Total : 33.86%