Bundesliga
May 9, 2026 2.30pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Xaver Schlager 45' goal
  • Willi Orbán 54' goal
  • Nicolas Seiwald 69' yellowcard
  • Max Finkgräfe 69' yellowcard
  • Antonio Nusa 79' yellowcard
  • Benjamin Henrichs 90'+1' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Fin Stevens 64'
  • yellowcard Hauke Wahl 64'
  • yellowcard Abdoulie Ceesay 72'
  • goal Abdoulie Ceesay 86'
  • yellowcard Mathias Rasmussen 89'
  • yellowcard Danel Sinani 89'

RB Leipzig vs St Pauli - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

RB Leipzig

All competitions
Last game
May 2, 2026 5.30pm
B. Leverkusen 4 - 1 RB Leipzig
Goals scored
65
Top scorer
Yan Diomande

St Pauli

All competitions
Last game
May 3, 2026 2.30pm
St Pauli 1 - 2 Mainz
Goals scored
28
Top scorer
Abdoulie Ceesay

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 68.3%. A draw had a probability of 18.81% and a win for St Pauli had a probability of 12.89%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.73%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.34%) , while for a St Pauli win it was 0-1 (3.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.

Result

RB Leipzig 68.3% (+0.65)
Draw 18.81% (-0.22)
St Pauli 12.89% (-0.39)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.64% (+0.03)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.07% (+0.27)
Under 1.5 19.93% (-0.27)
Over 2.5 59.16% (+0.43)
Under 2.5 40.84% (-0.43)
Over 3.5 37.83% (+0.54)
Under 3.5 62.17% (-0.54)
Over 4.5 25.77% (+0.56)
Under 4.5 74.23% (-0.57)

First Half Winner

RB Leipzig 51.82% (+0.89)
Draw 33.92% (-0.47)
St Pauli 14.26% (-0.43)

Team To Score First

RB Leipzig 69.23% (+0.60)
No Goal 5.22% (-0.07)
St Pauli 25.55% (-0.53)

Corners

Over 8 67.73% (-0.07)
Equal 8 10.52% (+0.04)
Under 8 21.75% (+0.04)
Over 9 56.07% (-0.11)
Equal 9 11.66% (+0.05)
Under 9 32.27% (+0.08)
Over 10.5 44.32% (-0.15)
Under 10.5 55.68% (+0.15)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 1.5 64.16% (+0.66)
Under 1.5 35.84% (-0.66)
Over 2.5 38.15% (+0.75)
Under 2.5 61.85% (-0.75)
Over 3.5 19.06% (+0.67)
Under 3.5 80.94% (-0.66)

St Pauli Goals

Over 0.5 46.08% (-0.53)
Under 0.5 53.92% (+0.53)
Over 1.5 17.38% (-0.40)
Under 1.5 82.62% (+0.40)
Over 2.5 5.17% (-0.21)
Under 2.5 94.83% (+0.21)
Over 3.5 1.29% (-0.06)
Under 3.5 98.71% (+0.05)

Score analysis

RB Leipzig 68.3%
Draw 18.8%
St Pauli 12.89%
RB Leipzig
2-0 @ 11.04%
1-0 @ 10.73% (-0.13)
2-1 @ 9.55% (-0.02)
3-0 @ 8.02% (+0.07)
3-1 @ 6.84% (+0.05)
3-2 @ 3.22% (+0.02)
Other @ 18.9% (+0.67)
Total : 68.3%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.34% (-0.10)
0-0 @ 5.22% (-0.07)
2-2 @ 4.07% (-0.03)
3-3 @ 1.01% (-0.04)
Other @ 0.16% (-0.02)
Total : 18.8%
St Pauli
0-1 @ 3.97% (-0.05)
1-2 @ 3.37% (-0.13)
0-2 @ 1.55% (-0.05)
2-3 @ 1.35% (-0.04)
1-3 @ 1.15% (-0.05)
Other @ 1.13% (-0.05)
Total : 12.89%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Jan 27, 2026 7.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Millerntor-Stadion
  • Martijn Kaars 67' yellowcard
  • Mathias Pereira Lage 76' yellowcard
  • Jackson Irvine 77' yellowcard
  • Mathias Rasmussen 77' yellowcard
  • Abdoulie Ceesay 87' yellowcard
  • Martijn Kaars 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Conrad Harder 64'
  • goal Yan Diomande 66'
  • yellowcard Ezechiel Banzuzi 85'
  • yellowcard Tidiam Gomis 85'
  • yellowcard Benjamin Henrichs 90'+4'
Bundesliga Gameweek 21
Feb 9, 2025 4.30pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Lutsharel Geertruida 1' yellowcard
  • Benjamin Sesko 16' goal
  • Xavi Simons 35' goal
  • Kevin Kampl 66' yellowcard
  • Willi Orban 69' redcard
  • yellowcard Siebe Van der Heyden 11'
  • yellowcard Adam Dzwigala 58'
DFB-Pokal
Oct 29, 2024 5.00pm
4
2
HT : 3 1
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Yussuf Poulsen 12' goal
  • Christoph Baumgartner 17' goal
  • Yussuf Poulsen 30' goal
  • Antonio Nusa 80' goal
  • goal Morgan Guilavogui 28'
  • yellowcard Manolis Saliakas 40'
  • goal Eric Smith 59'
Bundesliga Gameweek 4
Sep 22, 2024 6.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Millerntor-Stadion
  • Philipp Treu 29' yellowcard
  • Elias Saad 71' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Amadou Haidara 24'