Bundesliga Gameweek 33
May 9, 2026 2.30pm
Red Bull Arena

RB Leipzig vs St Pauli - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

RB Leipzig

All competitions
Last game
May 2, 2026 5.30pm
B. Leverkusen 4 - 1 RB Leipzig
Goals scored
63
Top scorer
Yan Diomande

St Pauli

All competitions
Last game
May 3, 2026 2.30pm
St Pauli 1 - 2 Mainz
Goals scored
27
Top scorer
Martijn Kaars

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 67.66%. A draw has a probability of 19.02% and a win for St Pauli has a probability of 13.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win is 2-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (10.86%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (8.44%) , while for a St Pauli win it is 0-1 (4.02%).

Result

RB Leipzig 67.66% (+0.01)
Draw 19.02% (-0.02)
St Pauli 13.28%

Both Teams to Score: 

50.66% (+0.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.79% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 20.21% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 58.73%
Under 2.5 41.27%
Over 3.5 37.3%
Under 3.5 62.7%
Over 4.5 25.2% (-0.02)
Under 4.5 74.8% (+0.02)

First Half Winner

RB Leipzig 50.94%
Draw 34.38% (+0.02)
St Pauli 14.69%

Team To Score First

RB Leipzig 68.64% (+0.02)
No Goal 5.28% (-0.01)
St Pauli 26.08% (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 67.8% (+0.02)
Equal 8 10.48%
Under 8 21.72% (-0.02)
Over 9 56.18% (+0.01)
Equal 9 11.62%
Under 9 32.2% (-0.02)
Over 10.5 44.46% (+0.01)
Under 10.5 55.54% (-0.01)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 1.5 63.49% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 36.51% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 37.39% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 62.61% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 18.39% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 81.61% (+0.02)

St Pauli Goals

Over 0.5 46.59% (-0.02)
Under 0.5 53.41% (+0.02)
Over 1.5 17.76% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 82.24% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 5.36% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 94.64% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 1.33% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 98.67% (+0.02)

Score analysis

RB Leipzig 67.66%
Draw 19.02%
St Pauli 13.27%
RB Leipzig
2-0 @ 11.04%
1-0 @ 10.86% (+0.01)
2-1 @ 9.57%
3-0 @ 7.95%
3-1 @ 6.8%
3-2 @ 3.21% (-0.02)
Other @ 18.23%
Total : 67.66%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.44%
0-0 @ 5.28% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.1%
3-3 @ 1.04%
Other @ 0.16% (-0.02)
Total : 19.02%
St Pauli
0-1 @ 4.02%
1-2 @ 3.5%
0-2 @ 1.59%
2-3 @ 1.39%
1-3 @ 1.19%
Other @ 1.17%
Total : 13.27%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Jan 27, 2026 7.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Millerntor-Stadion
  • Martijn Kaars 67' yellowcard
  • Mathias Pereira Lage 76' yellowcard
  • Jackson Irvine 77' yellowcard
  • Mathias Rasmussen 77' yellowcard
  • Abdoulie Ceesay 87' yellowcard
  • Martijn Kaars 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Conrad Harder 64'
  • goal Yan Diomande 66'
  • yellowcard Ezechiel Banzuzi 85'
  • yellowcard Tidiam Gomis 85'
  • yellowcard Benjamin Henrichs 90'+4'
Bundesliga Gameweek 21
Feb 9, 2025 4.30pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Lutsharel Geertruida 1' yellowcard
  • Benjamin Sesko 16' goal
  • Xavi Simons 35' goal
  • Kevin Kampl 66' yellowcard
  • Willi Orban 69' redcard
  • yellowcard Siebe Van der Heyden 11'
  • yellowcard Adam Dzwigala 58'
DFB-Pokal
Oct 29, 2024 5.00pm
4
2
HT : 3 1
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Yussuf Poulsen 12' goal
  • Christoph Baumgartner 17' goal
  • Yussuf Poulsen 30' goal
  • Antonio Nusa 80' goal
  • goal Morgan Guilavogui 28'
  • yellowcard Manolis Saliakas 40'
  • goal Eric Smith 59'
Bundesliga Gameweek 4
Sep 22, 2024 6.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Millerntor-Stadion
  • Philipp Treu 29' yellowcard
  • Elias Saad 71' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Amadou Haidara 24'